According my own preview, Federer in three or four would be an upset. Federer out-played Nadal all day, yet this was still, in the end, an upset.
The last set, especially the end of the match, proves this point.
At 3-2 in the fourth, Federer had his early break, so all he had to do is hold his own and serve out this match. Would he be able to hold three more service games?
I tweeted at 3-2:
https://twitter.com/mcshow_blog/status/1149743572008103936
He could have absolutely destroyed my theory and prediction had he broken Nadal down the stretch to make this even more lopsided. He had looks at the break, count them, two MPs on Nadal at 5-3.
After those two misses, Federer then had one final hold to secure his spot in the Wimbledon final.
I tweeted this at 5-4:
https://twitter.com/mcshow_blog/status/1149748946052366337
Of course, the final game got very ugly. Federer remained cool, no doubt, but can you imagine Federer not holding serve there? He missed on his next two MPs.
He was out-playing Rafa all day (but for the short lapse in the 2nd set), but if Roger loses serve there, and the fourth set goes 5-5, this thing is destined for the fifth and I hate to tell you who has the advantage there.
So, again, this was a very close call, but a win for Federer none the less. Brilliant stuff from the Swiss. The BH got better as the match wore on, some of his play at the net was spectacular, FH looked quite good in spots, and Nadal looked just a little out of sorts, I’m afraid.
Federer is now 24-17 H2H with Nadal. 3-1 at Wimbledon.
Federer goes into the final an absolute underdog against Novak (see age, rank, recent trend, etc.), but we’ll leave you with this: Imagine if Federer wins on Sunday? He probably doesn’t, but what if he does?
If he has one more gear, Novak will have his hands full.
Can’t wait for that match.
I’ll talk to you soon, more reaction and prediction.
Holy shit.
Mcshow Blog 
Exactly as I saw the match ….
Federer (as million times before) was not able to close it out. It might be 2 sets and 5:0 lead in the 3rd for Fed and you can still bet your last dime that if Nadal breaks him there he will get back and demolish him by the end of the 5th set easily.
Glad he managed to win it after this painful 2008 experience but the way he did it was ugly.
Fed could not win a single point in the last game if he did not score ace or there was a rare unforced error from Nadal (who never ever does such (when it matters) against Fed or anyone not named Jokovic). I remember Kyrgios when playing Nadal was barely able/unable in 3rd and 4th set to win points from play and he was relying on his serve only. Same thing happened to Fed. There was no way Fed could have made any points himself from play like a winner or forced error so he could serve out the match at his own will. He must be really happy Nadal beat himself in the end with this easy backhand going miles out. Nadal got in a monstrous form just the game before. He increased the speed of his strokes, aimed them better, putting Fed under enormous pressure and he was shaking hard already. This could have been the worst loss of a tennis legend in a grand slam tournament in history.
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“This could have been the worst loss of a tennis legend in a grand slam tournament in history.”
A hypothetical applied to the semi-final resolves into an actual following the final. I still can’t believe it.
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