If you had work today, had some kind of commitment or responsibility that prevented you from watching today’s R16 action, I sympathize; that was me last week, out of range to witness any of the 1st week at SW19.

Of course, I am quite pleased that I didn’t miss today’s tennis, a chance to sit in-front of the tube and watch the sport’s best (8 of the top-10) show that 2nd week gear they’ll need to reach the true business-end of the Championships. The only downside today is we had a few matches going-on at once. My best effort was to have Federer and Nadal on two different channels which enabled me to toggle back-and-forth.

The earliest matches, Cilic v Bautista Agut and Querrey v Anderson went according to form. I really only saw highlights of Cilic, but he looks tremendous right now. His big, quick serve and potentially lethal ground strokes finished the Spaniard, so he’s through and looks very confident. Again, he had a great WB tune-up and looks to be as scary a player as we have in the draw. The best thing that could have happened to that guy is losing Queen’s.

We’ll take him over Muller, a rematch of their Queen’s SF Marin won in three. This is big-boy grass tennis, ladies and gentlemen.

Of course, I am very pleased to see Sam outlast Anderson. Anderson has been mediocre this year, but the American has shown all kinds of class, smashing Kyrgios in Acapulco before beating Nadal in that final. His BH is solid, knows the grass well enough, which only adds to his big serve.

I suppose I am overlooking Andy a bit, quietly purring along up there in the #1 slot. Sam should give him a go, and Andy didn’t really need too much today to beat Paire, but he’s through, he’s defending and the crowd adores the #1. Smart money is on Andy in that QF, especially with Sam needing a longer outing to get himself through.

Two other matches that went five were the Raonic v Zverev and Thiem v Berdych. Zverev seemed to have the advantage up two sets to one and even a break I believe in the fourth, but the 2016 finalist evened it out, took the fourth 7-5 and won going away in the fifth. I did like Zverev a bit here, but the experience of Milos and a bit of guts looks to have gotten him back to the races here at The Championships. Still a good fight from the young German.

Thiem v Berdych had to favor the 2010 finalist and he ended-up good enough to survive. You have to hand-it to the young Austrian for his competitive spirit, but he simply needs more experience (and coaching perhaps) to get that game suited for surfaces other than clay. Good on him for the five setter, but Berdych’s grass class might be just getting a bit of shine for his big match coming-up in the QF. Nice to see Berdych get into a good beef with the chair over a call that could have really turned the match; but the Czech 11-seed overcame and advanced.

The last two matches of the day were terribly interesting mainly because they played into the fate of Fedal. I really nailed these in terms of prediction, meaning I did my homework. Nadal, upon further review, did not seem as formidable as he did at first glance.

As I said (and you probably could tell due to the lack of commentary), I missed the first few rounds of action. I saw highlights, but those are highlights (not fully disclosing the entire story of a match). Rafa did look dominant, attacking, FH amazing, net efficient, etc. But the flaw appeared as I watched more of his matches on replay, especially his R3 with the Krussian (another nickname: my T-shirt empire will be impressive). Rafa was working pretty hard in these early rounds (I compared this to Federer who is almost frustratingly composed and relaxed, fluid and seemingly showing-off). Well, even if this is partly true of Federer, he certainly wasn’t expending so much energy.

The Muller v Nadal match was just brilliant (aside from fulfilling more or less my prophecy). The fifth was quite interesting in that, aside from the incredible back-and-forth, and the MP and SP saving tennis from both that ended 15-13, one really saw the advantage of order of serve; Muller did not go away in that fourth set, made Nadal serve-it-out. So Muller opened the fifth on serve and this was huge.

Muller wasn’t losing serve easily, so this just meant that Nadal always had to serve to stay in the match. Even breaking Muller meant he would still have to consolidate. This isn’t a feature of a match I’m that much tuned to, but the pressure on Rafa’s serve, serving to stay in the match, was immense and finally broke him, no question. The lefty from Luxembourg really should have ended the match on a few occasions, whether via his several MPs that Rafa saved, or with some very questionable shot selection (drop shots) that kept the 4-seed alive. Great theatre and as I mentioned to a commenter, “buckets of class” out there. A real pleasure to have the time to watch those guys battle it out.

The Federer v Dimitrov match went according to prediction, as well. Here’s what I wrote about this potentially tough match:

Federer v Dimitrov aka Darth Vader v Skywalker. I loved Grigor’s form early in the year. He was playing inspired all-court tennis, winning Brisbane (beating some big boys in the process) and we all recall his follow-up run in Melbourne culminating in the epic SF with Nadal.

But we have to give the nod to Federer here, even in routine fashion. Why do I say this, especially in light of my criticism earlier? There are signs of Federer and his coaches’ design. His match with the young Serbian Lajovic was interesting early, the Serb up 2-0 and serving in the first set. Federer looked unimpressive. That first set went to TB. Even steven. Federer took-off after that, but it was pedestrian as far as Federer is concerned. [ . . .]

I predict that tomorrow’s match will see a more urgent Federer, trying more consistently to execute a more efficient game plan that revolves, as all grass tennis revolves, around the serve and ROS. We need not look much further than these two grades of achievement. His serve and ROS have to become more dangerous, more deliberate.

Federer was really solid today, executed very well and the win, indeed, was routine. Aside from Federer’s progress, Dimitrov has trouble at these stages of these tournaments, having to overcome this level of opponent. We’ve seen it many times. Let me turn to some of my notes I took during the match (sorry for the transparency, but this detail is far too interesting to me and I hope to you as well):

The telecast brought-up some statistics that indicate what a player needs to do to most likely be effective; you probably know to what I’m referring. They said Roger needs to win 28% of first serve returns, which would give him about an 84% chance of winning. This is just a nod to that ROS we know is so crucial.

Early in the first, the players were even, holding serve, Dimitrov showing some solid shot-making, basically the mini-Federer. Pretty decent stuff as they got a feel for each other.

First set at 4-4 was a big moment (the call said something to the extent that the last 8-9 sets between these two have gone 6-4 and this is classic Federer tennis, anyways, seemingly in cruise-control, but for that small window through which he secures the set theft).

Whereas Roger has been holding serve nearly at love, Dimitrov is feeling more and more pressure. 4-4, pivotal point in the match, Dimitrov serving, and Federer reaches a BP opportunity. Grigor with an ace. Then Grigor with a DF, BP #2. Roger BH ROS into the net. FH ROS long, ad in. Then deuce. Ad out, BP #3. Federer breaks.

Then he consolidates at love. The progressive pressure on Grigor’s serve pays-off at 4-4, though RF misses his first two looks at BP.

Brad Gilbert provided some classic commentary and I’m not taking this too much out of context. Dimitrov’s body language is showing the reality of these athlete’s contrasting pedigree as Roger has virtually stolen that critical first set. The comparison of the two (aka baby Fed) is almost adding to the pressure one sees in the Bulgarian’s demeanor as they begin the second set.

Gilbert: “The copy can never be as good as the original.”

What he clarifies for the audience, since this sounds pretty demeaning, is that the comparison has hurt Dimitrov throughout his career. Tough to disagree.

Roger playing with more confidence now, coming to net more. Dimitrov still showing some nice athleticism and shotmaking despite the pressure from Federer. On Dimitrov’s serve at 2-2 in the second, another DF, and then another. 15-40. Federer with a great ROS and Federer breaks.

At 30-30 and 2-4, Grigor DF again. Federer then secures the double break, serving for the set at 5-2.

Up 2 sets to nil, Federer looking really sharp from both sides. BH looking good, service games quick and dominate as Grigor looks more and more at a loss.

Roger secures another break early here in the third set, amongst nice ground strokes (the handsy FH I criticized as a shot that’s rushed and shallow is now a weapon that adds to the variety Dimitrov has to deal with). Roger is flying at this point. Then there’s the drop shot from the heavens  from the BL that lands about two feet over the net. Deflation.

Then. . . Dimitrov breaks back! With Roger serving at 4-3, with the break, Grigor puts together a little highlight reel. Find that game in the 3rd set if you missed it. Really great defense and finishing from Grigor. He’s back on serve.

This here at 4-4 is the stuff of Ljubičić, imho. I don’t want to take anything away from Roger Federer here since that makes zero sense. But this next move is 2017 Federer. Dimitrov is serving 4-4, he’s broken Federer’s almost flawless serve.

Dimitrov goes up 15-0.

Then Federer changes his racquet.

Even Gilbert says this is odd, which it is; a racquet change mid-game, no broken string, etc. Federer proceeds to find two BPs at 15-40, he converts the second and serves out the match.

That break back in HUGE. Mental. Stuff I would attribute to a Djoker or Rafa.

There are signs here of that unplayable Federer, the one of AO/IW/MI run, but he, of course, is far from done; this progression, which we first saw in Halle, slight improvement from round to round, his here again, ever so important as the stakes are raised, the opponents more dangerous.

I feel bad for Dimitrov. He has such a nice style, such a potent game when he’s confident and making his shots. No doubt, at 6′ 3″ he needs to improve his serve. This was a glaring issue in the match.

Much more efficient from Federer. Granted, he plays better when he’s up, more confident, etc. That’s where things would get hectic with the likes of Nadalovic. One thing we can agree on: 2017 Federer has been particularly strong in those critical moments of a match. This was clearly on display today v Grigor Dimitrov.

What a day.

Obviously, Djokovic v Mannarino has been pushed to tomorrow.

I have a bit more to say as I preview the QFs.

Look for another post (to close this round and look ahead) around 11:00 PST.

Cheers!

From the top:

Murray, like Djokovic, has a banana cream pie draw to the SF. Not much to say about his next two matches other than we can include mention of the other side of that QF, that  Querrey revisiting some of his Acapulco gold could provide some drama; he should outlast the big S. African and give Murray’s (by God he should beat the ill-tempered Paire) ROS a run for its money.

Don’t want to completely overlook Murray here, but the Big 3 along with Cilic seem to have so much more to say about the SW19 learning outcomes. Good luck, Murray.

The other half of that first SF is where things get interesting. Nadal v Muller doesn’t have the marquee currency, but this should be competitive. Muller leads the tournament in aces, he’s coming off a very solid grass tune-up where he won in s-Hertogenbosch and reached the SF a week later at Queen’s Club, losing a tight three-setter to Cilic. He’s a grass specialist with a big serve and his experience should keep him focused on the point rather than Rafa’s muscly outfit.

Nadal has arguably been playing some of the best tennis throughout the tournament; his FH is berserk, his finish at the net is smart and efficient, and he seems very motivated. I said earlier, having been in the mountains for most of the first week, upon glancing at scores and seeing some highlights (and reading the stars/cosmos/etc) that I saw a Nadal v Djokovic final (if you know my views on the sport, you know there is some rather obvious hedging going-on here).

However, having seen a bit more court evidence, what does raise my proverbial eye-brow on the Mallorcan maniac is a possible inability to keep such a surge going. Granted, the two have vastly different styles and strengths, etc., but the effort and stress of Nadal’s win over Khachanov compared to Federer’s win over Zverev is worth noting. As I predicted in my preview, Nadal’s Muller/Cilic back-to-back (following Khachanov) is quite a sequence.

I watched the third set TB with Khachanov today and just getting into the TB was a massive chore for Nadal. He saved a SP (maybe 2). If Karen wins that third set, who knows what would have happened. Look at the scoreline: 61 64 76; Khachanov was starting to figure-out Rafa’s game. Reminded me of the clay season a bit and the Nadal/Thiem head-to-head; Thiem got closer and closer before finally eclipsing the clay GOAT in Rome.

Nadal has looked nasty out there, his FH and net play phenomenal; but can he keep playing in what appears to be a very high gear. I know that’s his style, all-out, ferocious tennis. But he looks to be really efforting and I only wonder if, especially given his draw, he can keep this going.

To be clear, if I’m betting I still might have him reaching the final; but tomorrow’s match along with how Cilic looks could really inform this view of that quarter.

Cilic is marching. Although RBA is a really solid player, he’s, I’m afraid, in the wrong place at the wrong time here.  We talked prior to the draw alarmingly about who gets Cilic – he’s a big dark cloud in the draw. Spain will get a good look at this Croatian’s search for that zone (likely has RBA and Nadal back-to-back), that rampant form we know that has devastated at least two big tennis tournaments (’14 USO and ’16 Cincy).

Indeed, Cilic is playing very well recently, even at RG where he made the QF. His run at Queen’s was splendid, the final with Feli Lopez a real classic, especially given how meaningful the win meant to the Spaniard. Cilic had MP in that final. He’s on the verge. Such a close call often pays dividends later, a latent peak, so to speak.

The top of the bottom half gives us a huge clash of big games in Raonic v Zverev the Younger, what may seem like a toss-up or an edge to last year’s WB runner-up.

I see the German winning this match though Raonic’s mammoth serve could certainly be too much for the precocious youngster. Raonic may be favored here, and a win from the Canadian would not surprise me nor anyone. But I see Sascha going toe-to-toe, making another significant step toward his constellation.

Federer v Dimitrov aka Darth Vader v Skywalker. I loved Grigor’s form early in the year. He was playing inspired all-court tennis, winning Brisbane (beating some big boys in the process) and we all recall his follow-up run in Melbourne culminating in the epic SF with Nadal.

But we have to give the nod to Federer here, even in routine fashion. Why do I say this, especially in light of my criticism earlier? There are signs of Federer and his coaches’ design. His match with the young Serbian Lajovic was interesting early, the Serb up 2-0 and serving in the first set. Federer looked unimpressive. That first set went to TB. Even steven. Federer took-off after that, but it was pedestrian as far as Federer is concerned.

Next was Zverev the Elder and we’ve talked pretty extensively about this affair. Not the most exceptional form, especially getting broken back in the first, serving 4-2, having to go to TB. But watch the third game of the second set, the boys tied 1-1, Zverev serving. That break will be a microcosm of Federer’s crusade if he hoists the trophy. The combination of ROS and his unmatched footwork and grass genius are on full display, pointing specifically to the two swinging volleys he took from practically the baseline, instead of letting the ball bounce. He’s poised if this is part of a progression that he and Ivan and Co. have in thought and design. We talked about this kind of progression at Halle.

I predict that tomorrow’s match will see a more urgent Federer, trying more consistently to execute a more efficient game plan that revolves, as all grass tennis revolves, around the serve and ROS. We need not look much further than these two grades of achievement. His serve and ROS have to become more dangerous, more deliberate.

I forget his UE count in the Lajovic match, but it wasn’t very clean. In his 3R match he finished with 61 winners to 7 UE. That kind of progress must continue for Federer.

Most are fairly beside themselves at the possibility of Federer winning #8 here this year. But we so easily have forgotten the greatest grass run of all time, from a guy named Sampras; were it not for the rampant Krajicek, Sampras would have won 8 in a row. That pretty much skunks La Decima. Eight WB in a row. Think about it and this includes the new slower balls and softer lawns post 1994.

Pete talks a lot in his book, as do others elsewhere, about the value on grass of the serve and the ROS. This is Federer’s cup o tea; drink-up, young Swiss lad. If you try to fuck around too much with the BH flick or the swinging volley from the toes, you are going to die. Serve your ass off, coupled with the Sampras-like suffocating volley attire that imposes dominance and surrender. Federer has to go to school on this feature of the grass. The more you look at the weapons of this guy, the more you see that he simply has to execute, intensify his focus on these few tasks at hand.

Pete’s greatest rival was Andre Agassi. He was 20-14 overall against Andre, 4-1 in grand slam finals. Andre was a brilliant tennis player, with one of the best ROS of all-time. But he couldn’t hang with that massive serve (first and second) and volley. Watch the 2002 USO final and the 2005 USO final. Some brilliant tennis, Andre hanging tough with two of the GOATs. With Roger in 2005 it was just an overall offensive and defensive display of tennis genius. With Pete, the genius was in spades, but some of that might be hiding under that humiliating serve (and volley). Pete’s game was so imposing. Too bad he burned-out. With a serve like that, underrated BH and unreal FH to boot, he could have won for years.

Do I digress?

Speaking of serves, Novak has been broken only once so far. Impressed? I guess, except he hasn’t played anyone.

Novak has to beat Mannarino at love, three bagels. The Frenchman just played a five-setter in which he came back from down 1-2 sets. He’s 51st in the world and he’s gassed.

But we don’t really know Novak’s form. I spoke of Novak finding his form and perhaps reaching the final because I’m a big narrative guy. Federer has to watch his step, has to get very very serious about his cleaner 2017 game that hasn’t given foes much chance or opportunity. Novak is a kind of Federer antithesis, has been slumping for a year, has to, according to the cycle of life, return home, a wiser individual. I sensed this in the early rounds, Agassi in attendance, Ancic in the house, etc.

But we will never really know Djokovic’s form until the SF (if he reaches it). That’s troubling. The Gulbis match was a good showing, but there were the errors of the slumping Serb to speak of, the stress of the third set, Gulbis still believing he could extend and challenge, down 0-2.

Look for an easy win from Djokovic tomorrow that doesn’t tell us much about his game, compared to the rest of the draw.

I skipped Thiem v Berdych and like I said earlier, this could be a very interesting match, partly because Novak gets the winner. Thiem we know has a ton of talent and desire to compete though grass doesn’t necessarily facilitate his attack. Having said that, he did win 2016 Stuttgart, beating Federer in the SF. His clay campaign only adds to his intrigue.

Berdych is Berdych though he has had some nice showings this year, mainly his QF match v Federer in Miami that saw the two need a third set decider that Federer won in a TB 8-6.

Thiem and Berdych probably play a wasteful five-set classic that only vanquishes any chance either has against Novak in the QF. All kidding aside, this should be a good tennis match with plenty on-the-line.

Enjoy the tennis, folks. Thanks for reading. I will be tennis-bound tomorrow. Can’t wait.

Stay-tuned.

I have to admit that I really only watched the matches today involving Federer and Djokovic. I will hopefully find the replay of Thiem and Dimitrov, in particular, later, among other highlights.

But Federer and Djokovic have the most interest here as they do probably anywhere else, other than the countries or fans of those other very relevant athletes toward whom I mean no disrespect.

To defend some of my commentary earlier, for instance skeptical of Federer: I am looking at the third set of a SF, BP and the tournament and even legacy on the line. I go to those high-stake moments, judging the tennis here-and-now on those pivotal moments down-the-line.

Back to today’s rounds and again no disrespect to those players not named Fedovic.

Admittedly, there may be no better development in the tournament than to have Dominic Thiem go berserk. The more one-hander power we have raking the lawns the betterer.  .  . 😉

Don’t forget Berdych’s little run in Miami; he had Federer in his sights.

But let’s start with the Djokovic v Gulbis match. To start, Gulbis, as we know, is an under-acheiving talent. He’s had some decent results, winning six 250-level tournaments, finding a RG semi-final in 2014 where Novak outlasted him in four sets; essentially showing some real signs of a threatening serve, BH and a kind of unique quality that gave us tennis fans some hope that we had ourselves a bonafide tour regular.

This has not been the case with Gulbis. He’s essentially wasted any talent he’s had, known as a party-boy, heir to a family of diverse talent and success, perhaps fortune and fame. Whatever the case may be, Ernests has been an ATP bust.

But he found his way in the weakest section of the draw, got by Del Potro and found himself face-to-face with his old friend, Novak Djokovic. He and Novak were hitting partners back-in-the-day and the Latvian actually beat Novak in R1 of Brisbane in 2009. Talk about two players, then, going in opposite directions.

Novak took care of business today 64 61 76 (2) to advance to the second week where he’ll next face the Frenchman Adrian Mannarino; the alternative would have been Novak v Monfils, so it’s not quite as bad as it looks; actually, it’s worse than it looks!

Gulbis was up a break in the first at 4-3, serving, but fell-down and couldn’t get up. He soon found himself down a set and buried 1-6 in the second. However, he maintained a glimmer of belief and kept the third set tight and tense. This is somewhat significant, perhaps, as Novak, indeed, had a little trouble closing-out the hopeless, unseeded Latvian.

I mentioned that Gulbis is an “unprepared” opponent. Novak stumbled a bit despite the opportunities to really advance his game upon the unseeded journeyman. Novak’s ROS wasn’t very sharp, though Gulbis does threaten when his awkwardly flat serve hammers the chalk. Novak found himself on his heels a few times in today’s match. That may be all we need to take-away. He won in three, but, as I said, the Latvian maintained hope to the end, and with a win in that third set TB, who knows, as Djokovic, we can all acknowledge, is not out of his own woods quite yet.

Yet he survived and has a gift of a draw to support this recovery. To be fair, Gulbis is a challenge, but not the kind of test that Novak might need to fortify his craft for later encounters.

The match that followed Djokovic – Gulbis was Federer v. Mischa Zverev, which the Swiss won in straights 76 (3) 64 64. This wasn’t much of a match after the first set; and the first set should have been a much more decisive affair than says the scoreboard. Federer was serving 4-2, was broken and needed the TB to decide the opening frame.

The tennis during the TB and into the last two sets was master class grass tennis from the Maestro. Or it might better be called an effortless walk-in-the-park. In the southern California July heat, I had more perspiration sitting on my couch than did Federer. Seriously. I will take this as a very good sign for the Swiss seven-time champ.

More particularly, Federer was anything but brilliant during the first set. That he didn’t close-out the set was a bit worrisome. His ROS, BH in general and overall point construction seemingly lacked polish and execution. This is the kind of form that should worry anyone wanting to see Federer advance and win this tournament against much stronger competition. The ROS was especially bad. Such errant tennis will get him in all sorts of trouble, later.

The second set proved to be a much better case for Roger. Especially in the department of ROS. His early break in the second was leveraged on his brilliant ROS and other kinds of shot-making that brought back all kinds of classic Federer grass legend.

There was a bit of the same feel in this match that I sensed in the Halle final vs. Mischa’s younger brother. Did the opponent lack form and execution or did Federer impose his will on these two? Surely a bit of both.

In contrast to the straight-set Djokovic win, this one felt more like a suffocation, Zverev looking less involved as Federer grew more and more confident and brilliant with some of his exhibitionist shot-making (volleying, passing-shots, ROS, variety, etc.). He didn’t, literally, appear to break a sweat. That’s the biggest take-away: that he found the close-out against a decent grass opponent with this sort of ease. The match gave Federer some good looks at working his BH pass and other improvisations against a mobile and smart S&V veteran.

Djokovic struggled, on the other hand, imho, to close-out a challenging yet error-prone wild-card.

Of course, the next match will tell a different tale, perhaps.

Up-set alert: Mannarino in a five-set epic over Djokovic (you heard it here first). 😉

Federer gets Dimitrov, then Zverev the Younger or Raonic. Wow.

You Fedfans out there, I feel your confidence from today’s match. The TB and second and third sets were vintage. And I even got the sense (articulated by Utsav) that Federer might be holding-back a bit, or angling to play into final-four form. Today was a yawner, in the end, despite that break back in the first that kept the German alive and well. But the way he steadied the ship and really demoralized Zverev seemed as effortless as it was definitive.

But as I tweeted after a brilliant volley exchange in the first set that Federer won and had the crowd and announcers wet and wild: “That beautiful volley at 30-30 has zero significance in this tournament. He needs to choke his competition, not dazzle them. #Federer.”

I suspect Ljubičić and Co., are making this point, moving forward. Dimitrov,  Zverev/Raonic, and Djokovic will be more dangerous, more unforgiving. Again, I’m comparing the tennis I see in these earlier rounds to the fierce consequence of those deeper rounds.

Tomorrow’s off day will see more from Mcshow Tennis with regards to some of the other final 16. The Thiem v Berdych match is a bit under-the-radar, but could foreshadow all kinds of meaning on the Serb’s run for glory.

Also, Nadal v Muller and Cilic v RBA are interesting matches though we tend to lean toward a last tune-up before the Cilic v Nadal must-watch. Imagine that.

Querrey v Anderson is a big serving of a big serve grass clash, and let’s not forget about Murray who certainly should advance.