Men’s SF

The intelligent pick on the Medvedev vs FAA match is the Russian routinely. Someone mentioned Felix’s fitness, that he may get broken-down, especially given the Russian’s MO, to push and extend points and play basically crap defensive tennis that works marvelously for the petite and mobile Medvedev.

If Felix breaks-down physically, then Toni is a bum. That’s about the only thing he can add to Felix’s game: see Rafael Nadal.

If, on the other hand, Felix is fit and ready to run with Medvedev, can keep his first serve in the high 60s, low 70s (bit of reach there perhaps), then we have what I think might take place: a difficult match for the world #2, who, again, has all kinds of limits on his game.

Please get this thing to five, Felix. At the very least you’re young, so if you get tired or run-down, massive disappointment.

Take Daniil to five and you could be on your way to the final, to join your fellow Canadian teen on the women’s side. Way to go, Layla!

In the second SF, I like Djokovic, obviously. There’s some mystery surrounding this, however. The only question I have is how persistent the German will be. Novak is going to try to crush Zverev’s belief, maybe early if Novak can come-out focused, which we know has not been the case.

But the final three sets vs Berretinni might indicate the Serb moving to that next level, for which he’s renowned, as tournament’s progress, especially at majors.

I could see him coming out strong, but the German finding some life as the match goes on. One thing to keep an eye on is the German’s match and energy management. In a way, he has figured-out the Bo5. He can start slow, but come around as the match wears on. He often plays with seemingly little urgency, a huge contrast to the likes of a Nadal who is very efficient and goes for the throat early.

All this to say, maybe Novak gifts him a set and then stomps him. The Brooksby and Berretinni matches played-out with that first set working like quicksand for Novak’s opponent. Novak seizing control in the second and his opponent realizing what is in store is quite the match narrative, quite the “strategy.”

I am leaning Novak in a pretty one-sided affair. But a lot will depend on his serve and his ability to stay sharp. No one touches him in that form he put on display in the QF.

And the Olympics debacle has to be fueling Novak.

I like Novak in 3 or 4, but we’ll see how quick the German really does go away.

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